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Will Mamdani run for re-election?·closes in 31mo

Will Zohran Mamdani announce a run for mayor of New York City in 2029?

YES means Yes

24h volume
32
1,520 lifetime
Open interest
789
+131 over 7d
Spread
18¢
5 × 16 at the touch
24h range
62¢ – 81¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
81%−5

A YES contract costs 85¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
19%

costs 33¢

YES bid / ask
67¢ / 85¢
NO bid / ask
15¢ / 33¢
24h low 62¢24h high 81¢
Recent buying73% YES · 27% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
60¢70¢80¢90¢volSep 14Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask27499¢
  • ask61598¢
  • ask1.1296¢
  • ask16695¢
  • ask1.2491¢
  • ask2589¢
  • ask10086¢
  • ask1685¢
spread18¢mid 76¢
  • bid567¢
  • bid10066¢
  • bid9.6760¢
  • bid18723¢
  • bid1922¢
  • bid374¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Zohran Mamdani has announced that he will run for mayor of New York City in 2029 before Apr 6, 2029, including running for the nomination of any political party to contest that office, then the market resolves to Yes.

The person must publicly announce their campaign for it to be reported by a Source Agency. Merely filing campaign paperwork with the Federal Election Commission or similar entity is insufficient without a public announcement. The announcement must be for the specific office and election year listed. Exploratory committees or statements of interest without formal campaign announcements do not qualify. Running for a party's nomination to contest the office counts as running for that office. The announcement must come from the person themselves or their official campaign, not from speculation or third-party sources.

Settlement sources
opened
Jul 10 · 6:41 PM UTC
closes
Apr 6, 2029 · 2:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Apr 6, 2029 · 2:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXMAMDANIRUN-29-29APR06
Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in Will Mamdani run for re-election?.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 73% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
12h ago81¢13bought yes
12h ago67¢3.91bought no
12h ago67¢1bought no
12h ago66¢8.09bought no
14h ago67¢0.76bought no
14h ago68¢1.21bought no
14h ago69¢0.03bought no
20h ago62¢4bought no
2d ago86¢3bought yes
3d ago89¢0.27bought yes
3d ago88¢0.11bought yes
3d ago88¢1.12bought yes
4d ago82¢7.72bought yes
4d ago82¢5bought yes
4d ago81¢1.21bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.