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Martial law·closes in 28mo

Will Trump impose martial law before his term ends?

YES means Before Jan 20, 2029

24h volume
2.81
54.5k lifetime
Open interest
18.5k
Spread
1¢
5,322 × 250 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
34%+1

A YES contract costs 34¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
66%

costs 67¢

YES bid / ask
33¢ / 34¢
NO bid / ask
66¢ / 67¢
Recent buying43% YES · 57% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask1,04561¢
  • ask27159¢
  • ask6258¢
  • ask4953¢
  • ask4852¢
  • ask5039¢
  • ask5035¢
  • ask25034¢
spread1¢mid 34¢
  • bid5,32233¢
  • bid3631¢
  • bid25028¢
  • bid25626¢
  • bid3425¢
  • bid2521¢
  • bid12318¢
  • bid5017¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If martial law has been imposed in the United States before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Mar 19, 2025 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 20, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 20, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXMARTIAL-29JAN20
Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in Will Trump impose martial law before his term ends?.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 43% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
11h ago34¢2.81bought yes
3d ago33¢10bought no
4d ago34¢10bought yes
4d ago34¢71bought yes
4d ago35¢58bought yes
4d ago34¢0.98bought yes
5d ago34¢28bought yes
5d ago32¢1.43bought no
5d ago33¢110bought yes
5d ago32¢47bought yes
6d ago30¢10bought no
7d ago30¢28bought no
7d ago30¢20bought no
7d ago31¢3.07bought yes
7d ago30¢83bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.