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Midterm margin of victory·closes in 14mo

Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in New Jersey be at least 21 percentage points?

YES means Booker, 21+ pts

24h volume
20
1,388 lifetime
Open interest
623
+20 over 7d
Spread
5¢
200 × 200 at the touch
24h range
62¢ – 62¢
39 recent trades
Chance of YES
62%−6

A YES contract costs 60¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
38%

costs 45¢

YES bid / ask
55¢ / 60¢
NO bid / ask
40¢ / 45¢
24h low 62¢24h high 62¢
Recent buying33% YES · 67% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
25¢50¢75¢100¢volSep 14Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask39894¢
  • ask43193¢
  • ask3591¢
  • ask11191¢
  • ask9191¢
  • ask584¢
  • ask4383¢
  • ask20060¢
spread5¢mid 57¢
  • bid20055¢
  • bid554¢
  • bid6825¢
  • bid13624¢
  • bid3216¢
  • bid20015¢
  • bid46114¢
  • bid1,12312¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in New Jersey by 21 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.

The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Democratic Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Democratic Party if the Democratic Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the Democratic Party loses. Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If the Democratic Party runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural the Democratic Party will be summed. If the Democratic Party wins the election, the margin will be positive. If the Democratic Party loses the election, the margin will be negative. If the Democratic Party ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where the Democratic Party is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).

Settlement sources
opened
Apr 28 · 1:02 AM UTC
closes
Nov 3, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Nov 3, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC
floor
21
ticker
KXMIDTERMMOV-NJSEND-P21
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 39 trades, 33% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
32m ago62¢20bought yes
13d ago68¢15bought yes
13d ago68¢53bought yes
13d ago64¢5bought no
13d ago65¢10bought no
13d ago65¢5bought no
14d ago67¢20bought yes
15d ago67¢5bought yes
15d ago68¢20bought yes
15d ago69¢10bought yes
15d ago68¢5bought yes
19d ago68¢22bought yes
21d ago63¢15bought yes
22d ago60¢1bought no
22d ago56¢21bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.