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Midterm margin of victory·closes in 14mo

Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the governor election in Ohio be at least 3 percentage points?

YES means Ramaswamy, 3+ pts

24h volume
0
1,821 lifetime
Open interest
1,082
+44 over 7d
Spread
4¢
3.29 × 431 at the touch
24h range
–
25 recent trades
Chance of YES
30%

A YES contract costs 29¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
70%

costs 75¢

YES bid / ask
25¢ / 29¢
NO bid / ask
71¢ / 75¢
Recent buying41% YES · 59% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
20¢25¢30¢35¢volSep 14Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask1,71789¢
  • ask21688¢
  • ask50479¢
  • ask1,09264¢
  • ask32063¢
  • ask1531¢
  • ask60030¢
  • ask43129¢
spread4¢mid 27¢
  • bid3.2925¢
  • bid7.524¢
  • bid60023¢
  • bid60022¢
  • bid60021¢
  • bid510¢
  • bid67¢
  • bid167¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the Republican Party wins the 2026 gubernatorial election in Ohio by 3 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.

The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Republican Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Republican Party if the Republican Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the Republican Party loses. Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If the Republican Party runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural the Republican Party will be summed. If the Republican Party wins the election, the margin will be positive. If the Republican Party loses the election, the margin will be negative. If the Republican Party ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where the Republican Party is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).

Settlement sources
opened
Apr 29 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Nov 3, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Nov 3, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC
floor
3
ticker
KXMIDTERMMOV-OHGOVR-P3
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 25 trades, 41% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
6d ago30¢44bought yes
8d ago31¢50bought yes
11d ago35¢27bought yes
15d ago35¢1.87bought yes
15d ago36¢200bought no
17d ago43¢2.5bought yes
17d ago41¢5bought yes
17d ago42¢52bought yes
26d ago35¢1bought no
26d ago36¢10bought no
26d ago34¢200bought no
1mo ago40¢5bought yes
1mo ago42¢14bought yes
1mo ago41¢1bought yes
1mo ago41¢1bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.