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Midterm margin of victory·closes in 14mo

Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in Texas be at least 5 percentage points?

YES means Ken Paxton, 5+ pts

24h volume
347
40.4k lifetime
Open interest
26.2k
+1,857 over 7d
Spread
1¢
884 × 0.02 at the touch
24h range
15¢ – 16¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
15%−1

A YES contract costs 16¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
85%

costs 85¢

YES bid / ask
15¢ / 16¢
NO bid / ask
84¢ / 85¢
24h low 15¢24h high 16¢
Recent buying60% YES · 40% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
10¢15¢20¢volSep 14Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask46723¢
  • ask38422¢
  • ask3.7221¢
  • ask50020¢
  • ask60019¢
  • ask2,91818¢
  • ask1,44317¢
  • ask0.0216¢
spread1¢mid 16¢
  • bid88415¢
  • bid20014¢
  • bid6,23413¢
  • bid70012¢
  • bid8010¢
  • bid209¢
  • bid348¢
  • bid0.255¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Texas by 5 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.

The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Republican Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Republican Party if the Republican Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the Republican Party loses. Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If the Republican Party runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural the Republican Party will be summed. If the Republican Party wins the election, the margin will be positive. If the Republican Party loses the election, the margin will be negative. If the Republican Party ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where the Republican Party is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).

Settlement sources
opened
Apr 28 · 1:03 AM UTC
closes
Nov 3, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Nov 3, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC
floor
5
ticker
KXMIDTERMMOV-TXSENR-P5
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 60% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
6h ago15¢40bought no
11h ago16¢105bought yes
11h ago16¢176bought yes
11h ago16¢1.97bought yes
11h ago16¢2.12bought yes
11h ago16¢2.36bought yes
11h ago16¢0.24bought yes
11h ago16¢0.24bought yes
11h ago16¢7.55bought yes
22h ago15¢12bought no
2d ago16¢324bought no
2d ago17¢415bought yes
2d ago16¢354bought no
3d ago17¢28bought yes
3d ago16¢118bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.