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Midterm Voter Turnout·closes in 14mo

Will the total vote count for all participants in California 12 House General Election be above 195000?

YES means Above 195K

24h volume
0
0 lifetime
Open interest
0
Spread
7¢
200 × 200 at the touch
24h range
–
Chance of YES
0%

A YES contract costs 54¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
100%

costs 53¢

YES bid / ask
47¢ / 54¢
NO bid / ask
46¢ / 53¢
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask20054¢
spread7¢mid 51¢
  • bid20047¢
  • bid20017¢
  • bid31416¢
  • bid1001¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the total vote count for all participants in California 12 House General Election is above 195000, then the market resolves to Yes.

The vote count refers to the officially certified results from the relevant election authority. Provisional, absentee, early, mail-in, or electronic ballots are included only if reflected in the official certification. In preferential or ranked-choice systems, the contract resolves based on the vote count identified as the official result by the certifying authority. The contract resolves based on officially certified results regardless of ongoing appeals. Preliminary counts, exit polls, projections, or uncertified results do not qualify. If the election is postponed but held within one year of the originally scheduled date, the contract remains valid; if postponed beyond one year or canceled, all contracts resolve to No.

Settlement sources
opened
May 7 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Nov 3, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Nov 3, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC
floor
195000
ticker
KXMIDTERMVOTETURN-CA12-195000
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.