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Midterm Voter Turnout·closes in 14mo

Will the total vote count for all participants in Texas Senate General Election be above 8800000?

YES means Above 8.80M

24h volume
0
2,343 lifetime
Open interest
1,255
+39 over 7d
Spread
14¢
211 × 5 at the touch
24h range
76¢ – 77¢
21 recent trades
Chance of YES
76%

A YES contract costs 90¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
24%

costs 24¢

YES bid / ask
76¢ / 90¢
NO bid / ask
10¢ / 24¢
24h low 76¢24h high 77¢
Recent buying51% YES · 49% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
70¢80¢90¢100¢volSep 14Sep 20

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask5099¢
  • ask68698¢
  • ask20397¢
  • ask396¢
  • ask10091¢
  • ask590¢
spread14¢mid 83¢
  • bid21176¢
  • bid25075¢
  • bid10071¢
  • bid537¢
  • bid23710¢
  • bid2,9009¢
  • bid3,3603¢
  • bid5,2802¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the total vote count for all participants in Texas Senate General Election is above 8800000, then the market resolves to Yes.

The vote count refers to the officially certified results from the relevant election authority. Provisional, absentee, early, mail-in, or electronic ballots are included only if reflected in the official certification. In preferential or ranked-choice systems, the contract resolves based on the vote count identified as the official result by the certifying authority. The contract resolves based on officially certified results regardless of ongoing appeals. Preliminary counts, exit polls, projections, or uncertified results do not qualify. If the election is postponed but held within one year of the originally scheduled date, the contract remains valid; if postponed beyond one year or canceled, all contracts resolve to No.

Settlement sources
opened
Jun 1 · 7:00 PM UTC
closes
Nov 3, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Nov 3, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC
floor
8800000
ticker
KXMIDTERMVOTETURN-TXSEN-8800000
Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in its event.

Recent trades

Over the last 21 trades, 51% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
2d ago77¢1.07bought no
2d ago76¢39bought no
13d ago92¢1bought yes
19d ago93¢1.07bought yes
22d ago80¢53bought no
22d ago20¢14bought no
22d ago75¢105bought no
24d ago80¢24bought no
25d ago80¢24bought no
1mo ago83¢190bought yes
1mo ago83¢2bought yes
2mo ago79¢50bought yes
2mo ago73¢67bought yes
2mo ago73¢33bought yes
2mo ago75¢66bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.