who will be cast in movie·closes in 28mo

Will Bill Nighy be cast in The next feature-length film in the Pirates of the Caribbean franchise to be released by Walt Disney Studios after Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales (2017)?

YES means Bill Nighy

24h volume
0
0 lifetime
Open interest
0
+0 over 7d
Spread
5 × 100 at the touch
24h range
Chance of YES
0%

A YES contract costs 15¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
100%

costs 93¢

YES bid / ask
/ 15¢
NO bid / ask
85¢ / 93¢
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask14959¢
  • ask20258¢
  • ask4753¢
  • ask10015¢
spreadmid 11¢
  • bid5
  • bid100
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Bill Nighy is cast in The next feature-length film in the Pirates of the Caribbean franchise to be released by Walt Disney Studios after Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales (2017) before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

opened
Aug 19 · 6:24 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXMOVIECAST-PIR29-BNIG
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.