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who will be cast in movie·closes in 28mo

Will Nicholas Hoult be cast in the next official X-Men motion picture produced by Marvel Studios?

YES means Nicholas Hoult

24h volume
0
1,346 lifetime
Open interest
430
+0 over 7d
Spread
22¢
107 × 23 at the touch
24h range
–
17 recent trades
Chance of YES
23%

A YES contract costs 25¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
77%

costs 97¢

YES bid / ask
3¢ / 25¢
NO bid / ask
75¢ / 97¢
Recent buying26% YES · 74% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢10¢20¢30¢volSep 14Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask4462¢
  • ask35661¢
  • ask20060¢
  • ask9859¢
  • ask8958¢
  • ask4457¢
  • ask10026¢
  • ask2325¢
spread22¢mid 14¢
  • bid1073¢
  • bid2002¢
  • bid1,0001¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Nicholas Hoult is cast in the next official X-Men motion picture produced by Marvel Studios before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Jul 14 · 12:25 AM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXMOVIECAST-XMAN29-NIC
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 17 trades, 26% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
23d ago23¢1.19bought yes
1mo ago16¢12bought no
1mo ago18¢241bought no
1mo ago22¢2bought yes
2mo ago17¢1.19bought no
2mo ago25¢1bought yes
2mo ago25¢12bought yes
2mo ago23¢1bought yes
2mo ago22¢7.42bought yes
2mo ago19¢1.21bought no
2mo ago19¢5bought no
2mo ago18¢16bought no
2mo ago19¢15bought no
2mo ago19¢1.21bought no
2mo ago22¢1bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.