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music report·closes in 15mo

Will SWIM be #1 on Luminate's 2026 Year-End Music Report: Top 10-Selling Digital Songs of 2026 in U.S., as Published by Billboard?

YES means SWIM

24h volume
1
4,873 lifetime
Open interest
3,612
Spread
6¢
100 × 5 at the touch
24h range
–
28 recent trades
Chance of YES
10%−1

A YES contract costs 16¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
90%

costs 90¢

YES bid / ask
10¢ / 16¢
NO bid / ask
84¢ / 90¢
Recent buying7% YES · 93% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask1,10453¢
  • ask7552¢
  • ask451¢
  • ask49432¢
  • ask14131¢
  • ask10018¢
  • ask8.8917¢
  • ask516¢
spread6¢mid 13¢
  • bid10010¢
  • bid1952¢
  • bid1001¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If SWIM is ranked #1 on Luminate's 2026 Year-End Music Report: Top 10-Selling Digital Songs of 2026 in U.S., as Published by Billboard, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Jun 19 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Dec 26, 2027 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Dec 31, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXMUSICREPORT-TOPDIGSALE27DEC31-SWI
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 121¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 28 trades, 7% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
17h ago10¢1bought no
11d ago11¢27bought no
17d ago10¢11bought no
17d ago17¢11bought yes
19d ago7¢100bought no
19d ago7¢100bought no
21d ago10¢159bought no
21d ago11¢100bought no
21d ago10¢100bought no
27d ago8¢102bought no
27d ago10¢101bought no
27d ago13¢20bought no
27d ago12¢100bought no
1mo ago32¢5.96bought yes
1mo ago8¢100bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.