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SCOTUS confirmations·closes in 28mo

Will the next President confirm 2 Supreme Court justices?

YES means 2

24h volume
15
56.9k lifetime
Open interest
9,632
Spread
3¢
200 × 5 at the touch
24h range
35¢ – 36¢
36 recent trades
Chance of YES
35%

A YES contract costs 42¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
65%

costs 61¢

YES bid / ask
39¢ / 42¢
NO bid / ask
58¢ / 61¢
24h low 35¢24h high 36¢
Recent buying36% YES · 64% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask10.5k70¢
  • ask3469¢
  • ask2567¢
  • ask11165¢
  • ask5064¢
  • ask22949¢
  • ask5.0748¢
  • ask542¢
spread3¢mid 41¢
  • bid20039¢
  • bid2.2335¢
  • bid12529¢
  • bid5317¢
  • bid41116¢
  • bid54615¢
  • bid1012¢
  • bid105¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If 2 Supreme Court Justices are confirmed during the 2025-2029 presidential term, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Nov 4, 2024 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 20, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 20, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
floor
2
cap
2
ticker
KXNEWSCOTUSCONF-29JAN20-2
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 77¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 36 trades, 36% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
8h ago36¢1bought no
8h ago35¢14bought no
1d ago35¢1.17bought no
1d ago35¢2.25bought no
4d ago38¢35bought no
5d ago38¢5bought no
7d ago42¢2.25bought yes
7d ago42¢0.4bought yes
8d ago42¢2.28bought yes
9d ago36¢5bought no
9d ago36¢10bought no
10d ago43¢11bought yes
29d ago30¢5.31bought no
1mo ago36¢5.31bought yes
1mo ago30¢0.4bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.