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Next DNC chair?·closes in 223mo

Will David Hogg be the next Chair of the Democratic National Committee?

YES means David Hogg

24h volume
0
742 lifetime
Open interest
674
+0 over 7d
Spread
67¢
0 × 200 at the touch
24h range
–
26 recent trades
Chance of YES
13%

A YES contract costs 67¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
87%

costs 100¢

YES bid / ask
0¢ / 67¢
NO bid / ask
33¢ / 100¢
Recent buying91% YES · 9% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢25¢50¢75¢100¢volSep 14Sep 19

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask1,000100¢
  • ask51100¢
  • ask5,000100¢
  • ask20067¢
spread–mid –
    Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

    How this market resolves

    Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

    If David Hogg formally holds Chair of the Democratic National Committee before Jan 1, 2045, and is the first such subject to do so after Issuance, then the market resolves to Yes.

    For the purposes of this Contract, "formally holds Chair of the Democratic National Committee" means that an individual, company, or group has assumed Chair of the Democratic National Committee in an official capacity—whether by appointment, election, succession, confirmation, designation, or acting/interim assignment—and has performed or is recognized to perform the duties or responsibilities of that role for any length of time after Issuance.

    Settlement sources
    opened
    May 27 · 2:00 PM UTC
    closes
    Jan 8, 2045 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
    settles by
    Jan 8, 2045 · 3:00 PM UTC
    ticker
    KXNEXTDNCCHAIR-45-DHOG
    Trade it on kalshi.com

    Other outcomes in this event

    Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 166¢).

    Recent trades

    Over the last 26 trades, 91% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

    WhenYESContractsSide
    4d ago13¢1bought no
    5d ago16¢1bought no
    13d ago14¢1bought no
    22d ago14¢1bought no
    28d ago15¢1bought no
    1mo ago16¢1bought no
    1mo ago22¢4bought yes
    1mo ago21¢1bought yes
    1mo ago19¢0.36bought yes
    1mo ago19¢0.64bought no
    1mo ago20¢5bought no
    1mo ago19¢49bought no
    2mo ago22¢2.15bought yes
    2mo ago23¢1bought yes
    2mo ago20¢5bought yes

    Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.