Next Prime Minister of Israel·closes in 223mo

Will Bezalel Smotrich be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

YES means Bezalel Smotrich

24h volume: 0; 6,908 lifetime
Open interest: 2,481; +0 over 7d
Spread: 3¢; 0 × 216 at the touch
24h range: –; 5 recent trades

Chance of YES

A YES contract costs 3¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

96%

costs 100¢

YES bid / ask

0¢ / 3¢

NO bid / ask

97¢ / 100¢

Recent buying100% YES · 0% NO

What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.

2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.

3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h 7d 30d 90d

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes

ask55597¢
ask88892¢
ask5192¢
ask51275¢
ask2,96472¢
ask2004¢
ask1,6824¢
ask2163¢

spread–mid –

Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the first new person to hold Prime Minister of Israel after Issuance is Bezalel Smotrich, then the market resolves to Yes.

The market resolves based on who actually assumes the office of Prime Minister, not who is elected or nominated. Acting or interim appointments count as holding the position if they formally assume the office. The person must be different from whoever held the position at market issuance - if the same person continues in office through the expiration date, all markets resolve to No. Resolution is based on official announcements from the country's legislature or government, with The New York Times as a secondary source for confirmation.

Settlement sources

The New York Times

opened: Oct 24, 2025 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes: Jan 1, 2045 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by: Jan 1, 2045 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker: KXNEXTISRAELPM-45JAN01-BSMO

Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 93¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 5 trades, 100% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

When	YES	Contracts	Side
15d ago	4¢	20	bought yes
15d ago	1¢	200	bought yes
15d ago	1¢	979	bought yes
15d ago	1¢	300	bought yes
15d ago	2¢	155	bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.