galdor.xyz
Admin
Next Senate Judiciary Chair·closes in 16mo

Will Mike Lee be the next chair of the United States Senate Committee on the Judiciary before Jan 1, 2028?

YES means Mike Lee

24h volume
0
2,394 lifetime
Open interest
1,538
+0 over 7d
Spread
5¢
4 × 5 at the touch
24h range
–
44 recent trades
Chance of YES
42%

A YES contract costs 47¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
58%

costs 58¢

YES bid / ask
42¢ / 47¢
NO bid / ask
53¢ / 58¢
Recent buying99% YES · 1% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
40¢50¢volSep 14Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask10499¢
  • ask1284¢
  • ask1,48381¢
  • ask30780¢
  • ask75051¢
  • ask30049¢
  • ask25048¢
  • ask547¢
spread5¢mid 44¢
  • bid442¢
  • bid13341¢
  • bid25039¢
  • bid5121¢
  • bid30720¢
  • bid69016¢
  • bid2,50015¢
  • bid501¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Mike Lee formally holds the position of chair of the United States Senate Committee on the Judiciary before Jan 1, 2028, and is the first such subject to do so after Issuance, then the market resolves to Yes.

The holder of the position at the time of Issuance is excluded. For the purposes of this Contract, only a subject who holds the position in a permanent, confirmed, elected, or otherwise non-acting and non-temporary capacity—as formally designated by the body or organization at which the position is held—is treated as formally holding the position; assumption of the role solely in an acting, interim, transitional, provisional, caretaker, pro tempore, or otherwise temporary capacity does not, by itself, satisfy the Payout Criterion.

Settlement sources
opened
Jul 13 · 8:15 PM UTC
closes
Jan 8, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 8, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXNEXTJUDICIARYCHAIR-28JAN01-MLEE
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 87¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 44 trades, 99% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
10d ago42¢21bought no
12d ago46¢10bought yes
1mo ago45¢3bought yes
1mo ago9¢5bought no
1mo ago7¢1bought no
2mo ago46¢21bought yes
2mo ago46¢2bought yes
2mo ago45¢2bought yes
2mo ago46¢26bought yes
2mo ago44¢20bought yes
2mo ago44¢9bought yes
2mo ago44¢125bought yes
2mo ago44¢15bought yes
2mo ago44¢10bought yes
2mo ago43¢20bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.