galdor.xyz
Admin
Next NATO Secretary-General·closes in 879mo

Will Kaja Kallas be the next Secretary General of NATO?

YES means Kaja Kallas

24h volume
0
1,957 lifetime
Open interest
1,175
Spread
5¢
10 × 5 at the touch
24h range
–
41 recent trades
Chance of YES
12%

A YES contract costs 19¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
88%

costs 86¢

YES bid / ask
14¢ / 19¢
NO bid / ask
81¢ / 86¢
Recent buying60% YES · 40% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask46586¢
  • ask5.8284¢
  • ask9769¢
  • ask14258¢
  • ask5455¢
  • ask25654¢
  • ask20020¢
  • ask519¢
spread5¢mid 16¢
  • bid1014¢
  • bid1013¢
  • bid20012¢
  • bid1763¢
  • bid5042¢
  • bid501¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Kaja Kallas formally holds the position of Secretary General of NATO, and is the first such subject to do so after Issuance, then the market resolves to Yes.

For the purposes of this Contract, "formally holds Secretary General of NATO" means that an individual, company, or group has assumed Secretary General of NATO in an official capacity—whether by appointment, election, succession, confirmation, designation, or acting/interim assignment—and has performed or is recognized to perform the duties or responsibilities of that role for any length of time after Issuance.

Settlement sources
opened
Jun 29 · 7:47 PM UTC
closes
Jan 8, 2099 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 8, 2099 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXNEXTNATOSECGEN-99-KKAL
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 77¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 41 trades, 60% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
1d ago12¢5bought no
1d ago20¢5bought yes
1d ago12¢5bought no
1d ago19¢5bought yes
27d ago21¢165bought yes
27d ago20¢42bought yes
27d ago20¢5bought yes
1mo ago17¢35bought no
1mo ago18¢9.87bought no
1mo ago14¢0.13bought no
1mo ago16¢28bought yes
1mo ago10¢2bought no
1mo ago15¢6.67bought yes
1mo ago14¢5bought yes
1mo ago14¢5bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.