Next Secretary of the Army·closes in 40mo

Will Brian Mast be the next Secretary of the Army before Jan 1, 2030?

YES means Brian Mast

24h volume: 0; 548 lifetime
Open interest: 513; +51 over 7d
Spread: 17¢; 100 × 16 at the touch
24h range: 8¢ – 9¢

Chance of YES

A YES contract costs 18¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

92%

costs 99¢

YES bid / ask

1¢ / 18¢

NO bid / ask

82¢ / 99¢

24h low 8¢24h high 9¢

What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.

2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.

3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h 7d 30d 90d

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes

ask10099¢
ask4998¢
ask13192¢
ask10187¢
ask7.2539¢
ask1618¢

spread17¢mid 10¢

bid1001¢

Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Brian Mast formally holds the position of Secretary of the Army before Jan 1, 2030, and is the first such subject to do so after Issuance, then the market resolves to Yes.

The holder of the position at the time of Issuance is excluded. For the purposes of this Contract, only a subject who holds the position in a permanent, confirmed, elected, or otherwise non-acting and non-temporary capacity, as formally designated by the body or organization at which the position is held, is treated as formally holding the position; assumption of the role solely in an acting, interim, transitional, provisional, caretaker, pro tempore, or otherwise temporary capacity does not, by itself, satisfy the Payout Criterion. If the first qualifying permanent holder is not named in this event, each named market resolves No.

Settlement sources

opened: Sep 3 · 12:00 AM UTC
closes: Jan 8, 2030 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by: Jan 8, 2030 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker: KXNEXTSECARMY-30JAN01-BMAS

Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in its event.

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.