Will Nigel Farage be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2035?
YES means Nigel Farage
- 24h volume
- 17
- 49 lifetime
- Open interest
- 46
- +0 over 7d
- Spread
- 8¢
- 12 × 200 at the touch
- 24h range
- 28¢ – 29¢
- 7 recent trades
A YES contract costs 29¢ and pays $1 if it happens.
costs 79¢
An independent read of this market
Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.
Price history
YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.
Order book
Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.
- ask2875¢
- ask10874¢
- ask34072¢
- ask669¢
- ask26668¢
- ask1467¢
- ask5366¢
- ask20029¢
- bid1221¢
- bid20020¢
- bid1145¢
- bid3184¢
- bid5,0003¢
- bid12¢
How this market resolves
Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.
If Nigel Farage formally holds the position of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2035, and is the first such subject to do so after Issuance, then the market resolves to Yes.
The holder of the position at the time of Issuance is excluded. For the purposes of this Contract, only a subject who holds the position in a permanent, confirmed, elected, or otherwise non-acting and non-temporary capacity—as formally designated by the body or organization at which the position is held—is treated as formally holding the position; assumption of the role solely in an acting, interim, transitional, provisional, caretaker, pro tempore, or otherwise temporary capacity does not, by itself, satisfy the Payout Criterion. Andy Burnham is the holder at Issuance. A former holder who returns after Issuance is not disqualified solely on the basis of that prior service. If a person not listed here is first to formally hold the office after Issuance, every market resolves NO.
- opened
- Aug 20 · 1:00 AM UTC
- closes
- Jan 8, 2035 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
- settles by
- Jan 8, 2035 · 3:00 PM UTC
- ticker
- KXNEXTUKPRIMEMIN-35JAN01-NFAR
Other outcomes in this event
Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 92¢).
Recent trades
Over the last 7 trades, 96% of contracts were bought on the YES side.
| When | YES | Contracts | Side |
|---|---|---|---|
| 33m ago | 29¢ | 12 | bought yes |
| 33m ago | 28¢ | 5 | bought yes |
| 1d ago | 28¢ | 1 | bought yes |
| 1d ago | 20¢ | 1 | bought no |
| 15d ago | 27¢ | 0.92 | bought yes |
| 17d ago | 27¢ | 28 | bought yes |
| 2mo ago | 22¢ | 1 | bought no |
Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.