Jacksonville wins
YES means Jacksonville
A genuine toss-up in Denver, and Jacksonville money keeps arriving: the Jags side has traded nearly twice the Broncos side.
- 24h volume
- 3.09M
- 3.47M lifetime
- Open interest
- 2.54M
- +2.50M over 7d
- Spread
- 1¢
- 1,000 × 32.2k at the touch
- 24h range
- 41¢ – 84¢
- 50 recent trades
A YES contract costs 70¢ and pays $1 if it happens.
costs 31¢
An independent read of this market
ABSTAIN: Jacksonville is up 10-3 in the second half and the market's ~79¢ YES price is already a fair reflection of a mid-size, non-garbage-time lead.
Jacksonville, a pregame underdog (~44% per Kalshi's own pregame pricing, Denver -2.5 favorite), took a 10-3 halftime lead over Denver at Empower Field on Sep 20, 2026, dominating time of possession, total yards, and forcing a Denver red-zone turnover. The Kalshi YES price for Jacksonville has surged live from 0.42 pregame to the high-0.70s/low-0.80s as of this snapshot, tracking that in-game win probability shift almost exactly. My independent estimate for a team up a single-score-plus margin (10-3) with over a half remaining and clear statistical dominance is roughly 80-85%, essentially matching the current market price, so there's no exploitable edge left after the live repricing.
Zero/negligible size — my estimate (0.80-0.85) sits inside or very close to the current bid-ask (0.78-0.81), so the edge is smaller than the spread plus live-game noise; not a tradeable mispricing.
What the evidence says
- 1Jacksonville led Denver 10-3 at halftime, dominating time of possession (18-19 min vs ~15 min) and total yards (213-216 vs 188), and had forced a red-zone interception plus stopped a goal-to-go series for just a field goal.ESPN game page / SI.com / Yahoo Sports-PFT · 2026-09-20
- 2"Jaguars take 10-3 lead into halftime in Denver" — Broncos ran 6 offensive plays inside JAX 10-yard line in the first half but came away with just one field goal; Nix threw a red-zone INT.Yahoo Sports / PFT · 2026-09-20
- 3Pregame, Kalshi traders had Jacksonville at only 44% to win (Denver 57% favorite, -2.5 point spread, Denver moneyline -148/-149).Kalshi News · 2026-09-20
- 4Kalshi YES price for Jacksonville moved from 0.42 flat pregame to 0.70-0.83 range live as the game progressed and Jacksonville built its lead, with heavy live trading volume (~$2.9M in 24h) and taker flow mostly on the YES side.Kalshi exchange data· 2026-09-20
How it resolves
Resolves YES if Jacksonville wins the JAC @ DEN game originally scheduled for Sep 20, 2026, settling from official NFL.com results. Ties split 50/50; a postponement restarting within 48 hours still resolves on the final result; if the game doesn't start within 48 hours it resolves to a "fair price" (not directly relevant here since the game is underway).
What the tape says
Highly liquid, actively trading live market: bid/ask around 0.78/0.79-0.81 with 1¢ typical spread (occasionally widening to 2¢), tens of thousands of contracts of depth per level, and heavy 24h volume (~$2.9M). Price has clearly repriced in real time with the game state — a level, not a stale quote — jumping from 0.42 pregame to the high 0.70s/low 0.80s as Jacksonville built its lead, and continuing to jitter tick-by-tick (0.78 to 0.83 within minutes) consistent with live in-game volatility rather than a mispriced or stale market.
What would change this
- Denver scores multiple unanswered touchdowns in the second half and retakes the lead or wins outright
- A Jacksonville turnover or defensive collapse shifts second-half momentum sharply toward Denver
- Any confirmation that the actual final score diverged materially from the 10-3-into-halftime trajectory (e.g., a Denver comeback win), which would mean the current price is already stale/wrong
- Postponement or suspension of the game for weather/other reasons, invoking the 48-hour resettlement rule
Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.
Price history
YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.
Order book
Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.
- ask7,06277¢
- ask12.6k76¢
- ask8,42275¢
- ask2,03474¢
- ask22.3k73¢
- ask58.9k72¢
- ask59.3k71¢
- ask144.3k70¢
- bid16.8k69¢
- bid81.5k68¢
- bid21.6k67¢
- bid2,93466¢
- bid13.0k65¢
- bid4,14164¢
- bid27763¢
- bid60062¢
How this market resolves
Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.
If Jacksonville wins the JAC Jaguars vs DEN Broncos Pro Football game originally scheduled for Sep 20, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
The following market refers to the team who wins the JAC Jaguars vs DEN Broncos Pro Football game originally scheduled for Sep 20, 2026. If the game ends in a tie, the market will resolve to $0.50 for each team. If the game is postponed but begins within 48 hours from its originally scheduled start time, the market will remain open and resolve based on the official final result. If the game is not started within 48 hours, the market will resolve to a fair price. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.
- opened
- Aug 25 · 3:33 PM UTC
- closes
- Sep 22 · 8:05 PM UTC · may close early
- settles by
- Sep 20 · 11:05 PM UTC
- ticker
- KXNFLGAME-26SEP20JACDEN-JAC
Other outcomes in this event
Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 100¢).
Recent trades
Over the last 50 trades, 13% of contracts were bought on the YES side.
| When | YES | Contracts | Side |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2s ago | 70¢ | 15 | bought yes |
| 2s ago | 70¢ | 90 | bought yes |
| 2s ago | 70¢ | 35 | bought yes |
| 2s ago | 70¢ | 6.99 | bought yes |
| 2s ago | 70¢ | 140 | bought yes |
| 2s ago | 69¢ | 309 | bought no |
| 4s ago | 69¢ | 2.18 | bought no |
| 4s ago | 69¢ | 7,240 | bought no |
| 4s ago | 69¢ | 855 | bought no |
| 5s ago | 69¢ | 1.29 | bought no |
| 5s ago | 70¢ | 14 | bought yes |
| 7s ago | 70¢ | 4.65 | bought yes |
| 7s ago | 69¢ | 69 | bought no |
| 8s ago | 70¢ | 69 | bought yes |
| 9s ago | 69¢ | 74 | bought no |
Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.