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Nominal GDP growth in [year]·closes in 4mo

Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2026 be above 5.5%?

YES means Above 5.5%

24h volume
0
130 lifetime
Open interest
112
Spread
9¢
2 × 500 at the touch
24h range
–
17 recent trades
Chance of YES
43%

A YES contract costs 88¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
57%

costs 21¢

YES bid / ask
79¢ / 88¢
NO bid / ask
12¢ / 21¢
Recent buying8% YES · 92% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Order book unavailable.

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for calendar year 2026 is above 5.5%, then the market resolves to Yes.

The Underlying is the 2026 annual value for GDP under “Current-dollar measures” in the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis release titled “GDP (Advance Estimate), 4th Quarter and Year 2026,” or its equivalent successor publication. The value will be taken as reported by BEA, in percentage terms and to the precision published by BEA. Subsequent estimates, revisions, annual updates, or benchmark revisions will not affect resolution.

Settlement sources
opened
Aug 6 · 10:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 28, 2027 · 1:29 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Feb 4, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC
floor
5.5
ticker
KXNOMGDPGROWTH-27JAN28-T5.5
Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in its event.

Recent trades

Over the last 17 trades, 8% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
25d ago43¢6bought yes
1mo ago55¢2bought yes
1mo ago54¢2bought no
1mo ago52¢2bought no
1mo ago53¢2bought no
1mo ago53¢2bought no
1mo ago62¢2bought yes
1mo ago79¢10bought no
1mo ago79¢10bought no
1mo ago79¢10bought no
1mo ago79¢10bought no
1mo ago79¢10bought no
1mo ago79¢10bought no
1mo ago79¢5bought no
1mo ago80¢10bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.