NYC statistics·closes in 5mo

Will the cover-page value New York City reports as “Average daily overnight census in all city-administered facilities for the reporting month” be above 86000 for December 2026?

YES means Above 86,000

24h volume
0
410 lifetime
Open interest
2
+0 over 7d
Spread
5 × 3 at the touch
24h range
5 recent trades
Chance of YES
95%

A YES contract costs 95¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
5%

costs 12¢

YES bid / ask
88¢ / 95¢
NO bid / ask
/ 12¢
Recent buying50% YES · 50% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

0¢25¢50¢75¢100¢volSep 14Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask5099¢
  • ask20196¢
  • ask395¢
spreadmid 92¢
  • bid588¢
  • bid20087¢
  • bid5752¢
  • bid4140¢
  • bid39139¢
  • bid6038¢
  • bid81
  • bid50
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the cover-page value New York City reports as “Average daily overnight census in all city-administered facilities for the reporting month” is above 86,000 for December 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

opened
Aug 7 · 5:03 PM UTC
closes
Mar 1, 2027 · 2:59 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
May 30, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC
floor
86000
ticker
KXNYCSTAT-SHEL26-A86000
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 5 trades, 50% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
1mo ago94¢5bought yes
1mo ago95¢198bought yes
1mo ago93¢2bought yes
1mo ago89¢5bought no
1mo ago88¢200bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.