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Obergefell·closes in 28mo

Will the Supreme Court overturn marriage equality?

YES means Before 2029

24h volume
64
102.0k lifetime
Open interest
29.8k
Spread
2¢
865 × 90 at the touch
24h range
7¢ – 9¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
9%−1

A YES contract costs 9¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
92%

costs 93¢

YES bid / ask
7¢ / 9¢
NO bid / ask
92¢ / 93¢
24h low 7¢24h high 9¢
Recent buying39% YES · 61% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask20130¢
  • ask17626¢
  • ask18824¢
  • ask10020¢
  • ask62915¢
  • ask17714¢
  • ask20010¢
  • ask908¢
spread1¢mid 8¢
  • bid8657¢
  • bid1606¢
  • bid16¢
  • bid256¢
  • bid1766¢
  • bid506¢
  • bid1396¢
  • bid505¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the Supreme Court of the United States has overturned Obergefell v. Hodges after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

Obergefell v. Hodges will be considered “overturned” if the Supreme Court of the United States has ruled that the Constitution of the United States does not guarantee the right to marriage to same-sex couples.

Settlement sources
opened
Jan 18, 2025 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXOBERGEFELL-29
Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in Will the Supreme Court overturn gay marriage?.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 39% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
28m ago9¢4.28bought yes
19h ago7¢3.21bought no
21h ago7¢6.68bought no
21h ago7¢50bought no
3d ago10¢5.35bought yes
4d ago7¢10bought no
4d ago9¢10bought yes
5d ago10¢48bought yes
5d ago10¢3.21bought yes
5d ago7¢3.21bought no
6d ago10¢5.31bought yes
6d ago9¢2.14bought yes
7d ago7¢1.36bought no
7d ago8¢5.36bought yes
7d ago7¢5.36bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.