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Oscar for Best Adapted Screenplay·closes in 16mo

Will Dune: Part Three win Best Adapted Screenplay at the Oscars?

YES means Dune: Part Three

24h volume
0
1,770 lifetime
Open interest
1,770
Spread
3¢
110 × 200 at the touch
24h range
–
11 recent trades
Chance of YES
7%

A YES contract costs 6¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
93%

costs 97¢

YES bid / ask
3¢ / 6¢
NO bid / ask
94¢ / 97¢
Recent buying100% YES · 0% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask2691¢
  • ask4579¢
  • ask671¢
  • ask55870¢
  • ask40069¢
  • ask2336¢
  • ask2325¢
  • ask2006¢
spread3¢mid 5¢
  • bid1103¢
  • bid3542¢
  • bid1,0001¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Dune: Part Three has won Best Adapted Screenplay at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.

The 99th Academy Awards are expected to be held in March 2027. This market and these products have not been endorsed by the Oscars. Any references to Oscars, or any associated marks are descriptive only and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between Oscars and Kalshi.

Settlement sources
opened
Aug 5 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Dec 31, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Dec 31, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXOSCARASPLAY-27-DUN
Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in its event.

Recent trades

Over the last 11 trades, 100% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
6d ago7¢134bought yes
11d ago6¢45bought yes
13d ago6¢78bought yes
14d ago4¢0.9bought yes
14d ago5¢93bought yes
16d ago5¢1,000bought yes
27d ago5¢19bought yes
1mo ago6¢200bought yes
1mo ago83¢0.01bought yes
1mo ago6¢200bought yes
1mo ago81¢0.01bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.