galdor.xyz
Admin
Oscar for Best Director·closes in 16mo

Will Alejandro G. Iñárritu win Best Director at the Oscars?

YES means Alejandro G. Iñárritu

24h volume
0
15.3k lifetime
Open interest
13.4k
+1 over 7d
Spread
3¢
1.15 × 782 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
12%

A YES contract costs 8¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
88%

costs 95¢

YES bid / ask
5¢ / 8¢
NO bid / ask
92¢ / 95¢
Recent buying85% YES · 15% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢10¢20¢30¢40¢volSep 14Sep 20

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask2,35944¢
  • ask2543¢
  • ask7.3142¢
  • ask25038¢
  • ask4837¢
  • ask7.7736¢
  • ask75512¢
  • ask7828¢
spread3¢mid 6¢
  • bid1.155¢
  • bid1014¢
  • bid2043¢
  • bid6522¢
  • bid4,8521¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Alejandro G. Iñárritu has won Best Director at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.

The 99th Academy Awards are expected to be held in March 2027. This market and these products have not been endorsed by the Oscars. Any references to Oscars, or any associated marks are descriptive only and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between Oscars and Kalshi.

Settlement sources
opened
May 13 · 7:00 PM UTC
closes
Dec 31, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Dec 31, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXOSCARDIR-27-ALE
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 109¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 85% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
6d ago12¢1bought yes
7d ago15¢7bought yes
7d ago9¢515bought yes
7d ago24¢199bought yes
7d ago18¢2bought yes
7d ago31¢250bought yes
7d ago7¢1,000bought yes
7d ago4¢78bought yes
7d ago4¢500bought yes
7d ago6¢200bought yes
7d ago36¢318bought yes
7d ago4¢200bought yes
7d ago4¢1,019bought yes
7d ago4¢200bought yes
7d ago4¢300bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.