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Oscar for Best Original Screenplay·closes in 16mo

Will The Invite win Best Original Screenplay at the Oscars?

YES means The Invite

24h volume
0
2,970 lifetime
Open interest
702
−699 over 7d
Spread
3¢
0 × 432 at the touch
24h range
3¢ – 3¢
18 recent trades
Chance of YES
3%

A YES contract costs 3¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
97%

costs 100¢

YES bid / ask
0¢ / 3¢
NO bid / ask
97¢ / 100¢
24h low 3¢24h high 3¢
Recent buying99% YES · 1% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢5¢10¢volSep 14Sep 18

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask5,00266¢
  • ask5460¢
  • ask1,78859¢
  • ask5031¢
  • ask1,0009¢
  • ask4323¢
spread–mid –
    Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

    How this market resolves

    Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

    If The Invite has won Best Original Screenplay at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.

    The 99th Academy Awards are expected to be held in March 2027. This market and these products have not been endorsed by the Oscars. Any references to Oscars, or any associated marks are descriptive only and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between Oscars and Kalshi.

    Settlement sources
    opened
    Aug 5 · 2:00 PM UTC
    closes
    Dec 31, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
    settles by
    Dec 31, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC
    ticker
    KXOSCARSPLAY-27-INV
    Trade it on kalshi.com

    This event

    Outcomes in this event settle independently.

    This is the only market in its event.

    Recent trades

    Over the last 18 trades, 99% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

    WhenYESContractsSide
    3d ago3¢62bought yes
    5d ago3¢969bought yes
    5d ago3¢62bought yes
    6d ago3¢169bought yes
    6d ago3¢100bought yes
    6d ago3¢1bought yes
    6d ago3¢131bought yes
    9d ago2¢6bought no
    15d ago1¢1bought no
    17d ago3¢31bought yes
    19d ago1¢13bought no
    19d ago1¢25bought no
    27d ago5¢957bought yes
    27d ago5¢100bought yes
    27d ago6¢200bought yes

    Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.