galdor.xyz
Admin
Jon Ossoff announces presidential run by...?·closes in 3mo

Will Jon Ossoff announce a run for President of the United States before Jan 1, 2027?

YES means Before Jan 1, 2027

24h volume
0
758 lifetime
Open interest
408
+200 over 7d
Spread
9¢
200 × 200 at the touch
24h range
–
25 recent trades
Chance of YES
7%

A YES contract costs 11¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
93%

costs 98¢

YES bid / ask
2¢ / 11¢
NO bid / ask
89¢ / 98¢
Recent buying44% YES · 56% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢10¢20¢30¢volSep 14Sep 19

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask10099¢
  • ask89187¢
  • ask24886¢
  • ask127¢
  • ask20011¢
spread9¢mid 6¢
  • bid2002¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Jon Ossoff has announced that he will run for President of the United States in 2028 before Jan 1, 2027, including running for the nomination of any political party to contest that office, then the market resolves to Yes.

The person must publicly announce their campaign for it to be reported by a Source Agency. Merely filing campaign paperwork with the Federal Election Commission or similar entity is insufficient without a public announcement. The announcement must be for the specific office and election year listed. Exploratory committees or statements of interest without formal campaign announcements do not qualify. Running for a party's nomination to contest the office counts as running for that office. The announcement must come from the person themselves or their official campaign, not from speculation or third-party sources.

Settlement sources
opened
Jul 7 · 5:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXOSSOFFRUN-28-27JAN01
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 25 trades, 44% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
4d ago7¢158bought no
4d ago9¢53bought yes
6d ago9¢1.05bought yes
6d ago7¢90bought no
6d ago11¢53bought yes
7d ago9¢0.29bought yes
7d ago9¢1bought yes
7d ago9¢0.07bought yes
8d ago3¢1bought no
8d ago2¢14bought no
8d ago11¢0.11bought yes
8d ago11¢1.08bought yes
14d ago5¢35bought no
14d ago5¢40bought no
15d ago6¢80bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.