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Turkish parliamentary election·closes in 32mo

Who will win the next Turkish general election?

YES means CHP

24h volume
0
7,168 lifetime
Open interest
390
+0 over 7d
Spread
8¢
352 × 153 at the touch
24h range
–
21 recent trades
Chance of YES
12%

A YES contract costs 18¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
88%

costs 90¢

YES bid / ask
10¢ / 18¢
NO bid / ask
82¢ / 90¢
Recent buying5% YES · 95% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
5¢10¢15¢20¢volSep 18, 7:00 AMSep 19, 6:00 PM

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask1,000100¢
  • ask2,22299¢
  • ask2,58092¢
  • ask25392¢
  • ask20033¢
  • ask15318¢
spread8¢mid 14¢
  • bid35210¢
  • bid2511¢
  • bid2,5050¢
  • bid1,0000¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the winner of the next Turkish general election is CHP, then the market resolves to Yes.

For parliamentary/legislative elections, the winner is the party, coalition, or alliance winning the most seats in the specified chamber. If two parties have the same number of seats, the one entering government will resolve to Yes and all others to No; if both or neither enter government, the one with the higher share of the vote will resolve to Yes and all others to No. This market may resolve early once a consensus of designated media sources has declared a winner. See full rules for details.

Settlement sources
opened
Jul 15, 2025 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
May 7, 2029 · 2:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
May 7, 2028 · 2:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXPARLITURKEY-28-CHP
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 88¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 21 trades, 5% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
22d ago12¢6.94bought no
26d ago18¢500bought no
26d ago18¢46bought no
26d ago24¢500bought no
26d ago32¢1bought yes
1mo ago24¢1.55bought no
1mo ago25¢5.06bought no
2mo ago32¢0.06bought yes
2mo ago31¢10bought yes
2mo ago31¢5bought yes
2mo ago32¢36bought yes
2mo ago33¢48bought yes
2mo ago28¢5bought yes
2mo ago25¢157bought no
2mo ago25¢90bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.