next player black panther·closes in 28mo

Will Winston Duke perform as the main protagonist in the next theatrical film in the Black Panther franchise produced or distributed by Marvel Studios and officially recognized by Marvel Studios or Disney as the next primary Black Panther motion picture following Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (2022)?

YES means Winston Duke

24h volume
0
93 lifetime
Open interest
88
+0 over 7d
Spread
95¢
5 × 32 at the touch
24h range
3 recent trades
Chance of YES
4%

A YES contract costs 97¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
96%

costs 98¢

YES bid / ask
/ 97¢
NO bid / ask
/ 98¢
Recent buying95% YES · 5% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

0¢25¢50¢75¢100¢volSep 14Sep 19

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask5099¢
  • ask3297¢
spread95¢mid 50¢
  • bid5
  • bid50
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Winston Duke performs/ is announced as the main protagonist in the next theatrical film in the Black Panther franchise produced or distributed by Marvel Studios and officially recognized by Marvel Studios or Disney as the next primary Black Panther motion picture following Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (2022), then the market resolves to Yes.

For the purposes of this Contract, Winston Duke satisfies the Payout Criterion if either: Official Announcement: Winston Duke is officially announced, confirmed, or publicly credited as cast to perform the main protagonist in the next theatrical film in the Black Panther franchise produced or distributed by Marvel Studios and officially recognized by Marvel Studios or Disney as the next primary Black Panther motion picture following Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (2022), regardless of whether the performance ultimately occurs; OR Actual Performance: Winston Duke appears on stage, on screen, or in recorded content as the main protagonist in any official performance, showing, or release of the next theatrical film in the Black Panther franchise produced or distributed by Marvel Studios and officially recognized by Marvel Studios or Disney as the next primary Black Panther motion picture following Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (2022). Additional clarification(s): If the next theatrical film in the Black Panther franchise produced or distributed by Marvel Studios and officially recognized by Marvel Studios or Disney as the next primary Black Panther motion picture following Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (2022) is entirely cancelled or abandoned before any official performance or release occurs, but Winston Duke was officially announced in the main protagonist, the Contract will resolve to “Yes.” If multiple people are announced for the main protagonist (e.g., alternating cast, dual casting), and Winston Duke is among them, the Contract will resolve to “Yes.” b The Contract may resolve to “No” prior to the Expiration Date if: (a) the next theatrical film in the Black Panther franchise produced or distributed by Marvel Studios and officially recognized by Marvel Studios or Disney as the next primary Black Panther motion picture following Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (2022) is cancelled or completes its run without Winston Duke being announced or performing in the main protagonist, or (b) another person is officially announced as the sole exclusive performer for the main protagonist.

Settlement sources
opened
May 30 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Dec 31, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 2, 2028 · 4:59 AM UTC
ticker
KXPERFORMROLEBPANTHER-BP-WIN
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 3 trades, 95% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
1mo ago83bought yes
2mo ago5bought no
2mo ago14¢5bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.