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2028 election occurring ·closes in 27mo

Will the 2028 presidential election occur?

YES means In 2028

24h volume
0
70.5k lifetime
Open interest
26.8k
Spread
2¢
100 × 100 at the touch
24h range
–
42 recent trades
Chance of YES
93%

A YES contract costs 93¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
7%

costs 9¢

YES bid / ask
91¢ / 93¢
NO bid / ask
7¢ / 9¢
Recent buying83% YES · 17% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask7097¢
  • ask27995¢
  • ask1,58094¢
  • ask1,17094¢
  • ask3094¢
  • ask4,71393¢
  • ask95793¢
  • ask10093¢
spread2¢mid 92¢
  • bid791¢
  • bid10091¢
  • bid20391¢
  • bid3,46890¢
  • bid190¢
  • bid24.8k90¢
  • bid20090¢
  • bid35387¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the 2028 U.S. presidential election occurs, then the market resolves to Yes.

Please see full rules for details.

Settlement sources
opened
Aug 14, 2025 · 8:45 PM UTC
closes
Dec 1, 2028 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Dec 1, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXPRESELECTIONOCCUR-28
Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in its event.

Recent trades

Over the last 42 trades, 83% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
3d ago93¢0.15bought yes
4d ago93¢0.16bought yes
6d ago93¢14bought yes
9d ago91¢148bought no
10d ago93¢29bought yes
15d ago90¢1bought no
15d ago93¢0.1bought yes
18d ago93¢1bought yes
18d ago93¢161bought yes
18d ago93¢331bought yes
18d ago93¢287bought yes
18d ago93¢300bought yes
19d ago93¢0.1bought yes
27d ago90¢48bought no
1mo ago93¢40bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.