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Number of rate cuts·closes in 2mo

Will the Fed cut rates 6 times?

YES means Exactly 6 cuts

24h volume
0
426.6k lifetime
Open interest
318.7k
Spread
1¢
0 × 31 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
1%

A YES contract costs 1¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
100%

costs 100¢

YES bid / ask
0¢ / 1¢
NO bid / ask
99¢ / 100¢
Recent buying97% YES · 3% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask0.012¢
  • ask0.012¢
  • ask0.012¢
  • ask0.011¢
  • ask0.011¢
  • ask0.011¢
  • ask1311¢
  • ask311¢
spread–mid –
    Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

    How this market resolves

    Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

    If the Fed cuts 6 times starting Jan 1, 2026 and before 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

    To be clear, 25bp of cuts is equal to one cut (so 25bp cut is 1, 50bp cut is 2, 75bp cut is 3, and so on).

    Settlement sources
    opened
    Sep 29, 2025 · 2:00 PM UTC
    closes
    Jan 1, 2027 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
    settles by
    Dec 31 · 3:00 PM UTC
    floor
    6
    cap
    6
    ticker
    KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T6
    Trade it on kalshi.com

    Other outcomes in this event

    Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 106¢).

    Recent trades

    Over the last 50 trades, 97% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

    WhenYESContractsSide
    1d ago0¢0.01bought yes
    1d ago1¢75bought yes
    1d ago1¢250bought yes
    1d ago1¢0.01bought yes
    1d ago1¢47bought yes
    9d ago1¢62bought yes
    9d ago1¢125bought yes
    11d ago2¢1bought yes
    11d ago4¢0.93bought yes
    11d ago3¢1bought yes
    11d ago1¢127bought yes
    11d ago2¢1bought yes
    11d ago1¢0.01bought yes
    11d ago1¢0.01bought yes
    11d ago1¢406bought yes

    Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.