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Recession·closes in 17mo

Will there be a recession in 2027?

YES means Yes

24h volume
3,405
452.0k lifetime
Open interest
233.0k
+18.9k over 7d
Spread
1¢
0.45 × 14 at the touch
24h range
20¢ – 25¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
22%

A YES contract costs 22¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
78%

costs 79¢

YES bid / ask
21¢ / 22¢
NO bid / ask
78¢ / 79¢
24h low 20¢24h high 25¢
Recent buying57% YES · 43% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
15¢20¢25¢30¢35¢volSep 14Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask2,99229¢
  • ask2,37728¢
  • ask1,01227¢
  • ask1,13826¢
  • ask1,13825¢
  • ask63424¢
  • ask14023¢
  • ask1422¢
spread1¢mid 21¢
  • bid0.4521¢
  • bid4320¢
  • bid1,50819¢
  • bid4,76918¢
  • bid2,18217¢
  • bid18116¢
  • bid2,91315¢
  • bid24614¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If there are two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth in Q4 2026 through Q4 2027, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, then the market resolves to Yes.

For the avoidance of doubt, qualifying consecutive quarters may include Q4 2026 and Q1 2027. GDP growth refers to the quarter-over-quarter annualized percent change in real GDP as reported in the Advance Estimate for each quarter. The market will close at the sooner of the occurrence of the event or 8:25 AM ET on the morning of the expected release of the Advance Estimate of 2027 Q4 GDP. The market will expire at the sooner of the occurrence of the event or the first 10:00 AM ET after the release of the Advance Estimate of 2027 Q4 GDP.

Settlement sources
opened
Apr 24 · 7:15 PM UTC
closes
Jan 31, 2028 · 1:25 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 31, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXRECSSNBER-27
Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in Recession in 2027?.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 57% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
33m ago22¢18bought yes
1h ago22¢13bought yes
1h ago22¢28bought yes
1h ago22¢21bought yes
1h ago22¢2.75bought yes
1h ago22¢5bought yes
1h ago22¢2.59bought yes
1h ago22¢1.49bought yes
1h ago20¢21bought no
2h ago20¢2.59bought no
2h ago20¢3.56bought no
2h ago20¢24bought no
2h ago22¢21bought yes
2h ago22¢3.46bought yes
2h ago22¢16bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.