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Rivian KPI·closes in 19mo

Will Rivian Automotive Inc. report Above 48000 total vehicles delivered in 2026?

YES means Above 48000

24h volume
16
11.7k lifetime
Open interest
3,725
Spread
2¢
5 × 100 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
86%−2

A YES contract costs 88¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
14%

costs 14¢

YES bid / ask
86¢ / 88¢
NO bid / ask
12¢ / 14¢
Recent buying27% YES · 73% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask20099¢
  • ask18698¢
  • ask8597¢
  • ask1889¢
  • ask10088¢
spread2¢mid 87¢
  • bid586¢
  • bid361¢
  • bid560¢
  • bid458¢
  • bid7136¢
  • bid2835¢
  • bid332¢
  • bid1031¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Rivian Automotive Inc. reports Above 48000 total vehicles delivered in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the underlying company. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.

Settlement sources
opened
Jun 23 · 3:13 PM UTC
closes
Mar 31, 2028 · 5:00 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 31, 2028 · 9:00 PM UTC
floor
48000
ticker
KXRIVNA-28JANDELIV-48000
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 27% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
3h ago86¢5bought yes
3h ago87¢5bought no
21h ago88¢3bought no
21h ago88¢3bought no
1d ago88¢1bought no
1d ago88¢1bought no
1d ago88¢1bought no
4d ago94¢3bought yes
8d ago84¢100bought no
17d ago81¢100bought no
17d ago80¢200bought no
19d ago82¢100bought no
21d ago84¢100bought no
27d ago79¢100bought no
27d ago76¢200bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.