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Humanoid robot on Mars·closes in 101mo

Will a humanoid robot walk on Mars before a human does?

YES means Before 2035

24h volume
0
52.7k lifetime
Open interest
16.8k
+3.79 over 7d
Spread
5¢
5 × 500 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
51%

A YES contract costs 50¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
49%

costs 55¢

YES bid / ask
45¢ / 50¢
NO bid / ask
50¢ / 55¢
Recent buying58% YES · 42% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
40¢45¢50¢55¢volSep 14Sep 20

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask47475¢
  • ask5275¢
  • ask2068¢
  • ask9.6664¢
  • ask356¢
  • ask12554¢
  • ask1852¢
  • ask50050¢
spread5¢mid 48¢
  • bid545¢
  • bid7345¢
  • bid17045¢
  • bid3,02343¢
  • bid50042¢
  • bid430¢
  • bid52027¢
  • bid5112¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If a humanoid robot walks on Mars before a human does before 2035, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Dec 18, 2024 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2035 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2035 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXROBOTMARS-35
Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in Will a humanoid robot walk on Mars before a human does?.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 58% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
1d ago51¢3.79bought yes
2d ago50¢2bought yes
6d ago45¢3.98bought no
8d ago45¢1bought no
8d ago49¢16bought yes
9d ago49¢1.97bought yes
9d ago49¢3.94bought yes
9d ago49¢51bought yes
10d ago45¢41bought no
11d ago45¢38bought no
11d ago46¢5bought no
11d ago46¢84bought no
11d ago49¢1.97bought yes
11d ago46¢13bought no
13d ago50¢1.93bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.