Republican presidential primaries·closes in 26mo

Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Iowa Republican caucus?

YES means Glenn Youngkin

24h volume
0
0 lifetime
Open interest
0
Spread
50 × 5 at the touch
24h range
Chance of YES
0%

A YES contract costs and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
100%

costs 99¢

YES bid / ask
/
NO bid / ask
93¢ / 99¢
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask5099¢
  • ask2,06085¢
  • ask24784¢
  • ask450
  • ask5
spreadmid
  • bid50
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Glenn Youngkin wins the 2028 Iowa Republican caucus, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Settlement sources
opened
Jul 24 · 10:00 PM UTC
closes
Nov 7, 2028 · 10:00 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Nov 7, 2028 · 10:00 AM UTC
ticker
KXRPRESPRIMARY-28IA-GYOU
Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in its event.

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.