Supreme Court decisions·closes in 23mo

Will the Supreme Court rule in favor of Dr. Jasmine Younge in Younge v. Fulton Judicial Circuit District Attorney’s Office

YES means Before Aug 1, 2028

24h volume
355
1,070 lifetime
Open interest
660
+150 over 7d
Spread
5 × 10 at the touch
24h range
60¢ – 80¢
10 recent trades
Chance of YES
80%+21

A YES contract costs 62¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
20%

costs 45¢

YES bid / ask
55¢ / 62¢
NO bid / ask
38¢ / 45¢
24h low 60¢24h high 80¢
Recent buying52% YES · 48% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

50¢60¢70¢80¢volSep 15Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask2,35494¢
  • ask1388¢
  • ask30387¢
  • ask20086¢
  • ask18082¢
  • ask4681¢
  • ask20063¢
  • ask1062¢
spreadmid 59¢
  • bid555¢
  • bid20053¢
  • bid24316¢
  • bid43215¢
  • bid16
  • bid50
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the Supreme Court, in Younge v. Fulton Judicial Circuit District Attorney’s Office, rules a defendant may not assert an affirmative defense omitted from its answer as the basis for summary judgment without amending or seeking to amend the answer, including when Rule 16(b)(4) would bar amendment, then the market resolves to Yes.

The Payout Criterion for the Contract encompasses the Expiration Values that the Supreme Court of the United States has ruled, in Younge v. Fulton Judicial Circuit District Attorney’s Office, that a defendant whose answer omitted an affirmative defense may not assert that defense as the basis for summary judgment without amending or seeking to amend the answer, including where Rule 16(b)(4) would bar the amendment, after Issuance and before August 1, 2028. The market resolves to No if the Court holds that a defendant may rely on an unpled affirmative defense at summary judgment without amending or seeking to amend its answer, whether categorically or under a case-specific standard. If the case is dismissed, found to have been improvidently granted, or otherwise disposed of without a merits ruling on the Question Presented, or remanded without resolving that question, the market resolves to No.

Settlement sources
opened
Jul 24 · 12:00 AM UTC
closes
Aug 1, 2028 · 2:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Aug 1, 2028 · 2:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXSCOTUSCASE-YOUFUL28
Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in Will SCOTUS bar unpled affirmative defenses at summary judgment?.

Recent trades

Over the last 10 trades, 52% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
10h ago80¢150bought yes
10h ago60¢5.07bought yes
10h ago61¢200bought yes
4d ago59¢4.93bought yes
2mo ago56¢200bought no
2mo ago57¢5bought no
2mo ago58¢100bought no
2mo ago63¢5bought no
2mo ago62¢200bought no
2mo ago66¢200bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.