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Supreme Court makeup·closes in 28mo

What will the Supreme Court look like at the end of Trump's term?

YES means 6 Conservatives and 3 Liberals

24h volume
0
8,091 lifetime
Open interest
3,459
+0 over 7d
Spread
5¢
215 × 202 at the touch
24h range
–
24 recent trades
Chance of YES
74%

A YES contract costs 73¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
26%

costs 32¢

YES bid / ask
68¢ / 73¢
NO bid / ask
27¢ / 32¢
Recent buying75% YES · 25% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
65¢70¢75¢80¢volSep 14Sep 20

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask27589¢
  • ask5188¢
  • ask7487¢
  • ask3985¢
  • ask20078¢
  • ask46776¢
  • ask4175¢
  • ask20273¢
spread5¢mid 71¢
  • bid21568¢
  • bid150¢
  • bid1033¢
  • bid5998¢
  • bid1,1358¢
  • bid1,1264¢
  • bid1,0000¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If on Jan 20, 2029 there are 6 Supreme Court justices appointed by Republican Presidents and 3 Supreme Court justices appointed by Democrats, then the market resolves to Yes.

If there are not nine justices at the time of Expiration, then that strike will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No.

Settlement sources
opened
Nov 9, 2024 · 7:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 20, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 20, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXSCOTUSPOWER-29-29JAN20-R6-3
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 96¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 24 trades, 75% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
3d ago74¢1bought yes
3d ago74¢3bought yes
8d ago73¢39bought no
8d ago73¢2.73bought no
8d ago73¢5bought no
8d ago69¢5.03bought no
12d ago76¢25bought yes
1mo ago76¢1.29bought yes
1mo ago76¢6.47bought yes
1mo ago76¢6bought yes
1mo ago76¢1.29bought yes
2mo ago73¢2.27bought no
2mo ago73¢11bought no
2mo ago76¢52bought yes
2mo ago76¢13bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.