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Next SCOTUS justice·closes in 28mo

Will Neomi Rao become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?

YES means Neomi Rao

24h volume
0
16.0k lifetime
Open interest
13.9k
+0 over 7d
Spread
0¢
4.08 × 209 at the touch
24h range
–
20 recent trades
Chance of YES
7%

A YES contract costs 2¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
93%

costs 98¢

YES bid / ask
2¢ / 2¢
NO bid / ask
98¢ / 98¢
Recent buying73% YES · 27% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢5¢10¢volSep 14Sep 19

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask7007¢
  • ask67¢
  • ask8787¢
  • ask267¢
  • ask2007¢
  • ask227¢
  • ask223¢
  • ask2092¢
spread0¢mid 2¢
  • bid4.082¢
  • bid2.52¢
  • bid4.022¢
  • bid4332¢
  • bid5.062¢
  • bid41¢
  • bid5.561¢
  • bid1061¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Neomi Rao is the first person confirmed by the Senate to the position of Justice of the Supreme Court by January 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Nov 7, 2024 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 21, 2029 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 21, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXSCOURT-29-NR
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 101¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 20 trades, 73% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
12d ago7¢233bought yes
12d ago2¢200bought yes
12d ago2¢1bought yes
12d ago2¢1,474bought yes
12d ago2¢16bought yes
12d ago2¢95bought yes
12d ago2¢2.6bought yes
12d ago6¢500bought yes
12d ago6¢31bought yes
12d ago2¢1.03bought yes
12d ago2¢476bought yes
26d ago2¢1,000bought no
29d ago2¢811bought yes
29d ago2¢124bought yes
1mo ago2¢1bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.