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SNL successor·closes in 16mo

Who will be announced as Lorne Michaels' successor at SNL?

YES means Colin Jost

24h volume
0
8,809 lifetime
Open interest
3,395
+83 over 7d
Spread
7¢
11 × 5 at the touch
24h range
–
26 recent trades
Chance of YES
23%

A YES contract costs 22¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
77%

costs 85¢

YES bid / ask
15¢ / 22¢
NO bid / ask
78¢ / 85¢
Recent buying87% YES · 13% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
25¢50¢75¢volSep 16Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask1,00098¢
  • ask30097¢
  • ask21096¢
  • ask9.8575¢
  • ask15368¢
  • ask3367¢
  • ask10023¢
  • ask522¢
spread7¢mid 19¢
  • bid1115¢
  • bid10014¢
  • bid1014¢
  • bid3503¢
  • bid5002¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Colin Jost is announced to be succeeding Lorne Michaels as showrunner of SNL before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
May 21, 2025 · 2:51 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXSNL-28-CJ
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 26 trades, 87% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
2d ago22¢5bought yes
2d ago23¢78bought yes
12d ago21¢23bought yes
23d ago21¢4.47bought yes
27d ago24¢0.39bought yes
27d ago21¢100bought yes
27d ago64¢4.31bought yes
1mo ago66¢2.32bought yes
1mo ago20¢6bought yes
1mo ago24¢3.07bought yes
1mo ago20¢5bought yes
1mo ago66¢0.07bought yes
1mo ago21¢94bought yes
1mo ago20¢3.07bought yes
1mo ago14¢1bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.