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Virgin Galactic Launch·closes in 4mo

When will Virgin Galactic launch next commercial Delta-class SpaceShip ?

YES means Before February 2027

24h volume
1,010
1,977 lifetime
Open interest
1,875
+1,510 over 7d
Spread
19¢
5 × 5 at the touch
24h range
50¢ – 59¢
12 recent trades
Chance of YES
50%−25

A YES contract costs 59¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
50%

costs 60¢

YES bid / ask
40¢ / 59¢
NO bid / ask
41¢ / 60¢
24h low 50¢24h high 59¢
Recent buying28% YES · 72% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
25¢50¢75¢100¢volSep 14Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask25095¢
  • ask5794¢
  • ask22286¢
  • ask3281¢
  • ask1078¢
  • ask1472¢
  • ask670¢
  • ask559¢
spread19¢mid 50¢
  • bid540¢
  • bid8615¢
  • bid14514¢
  • bid20813¢
  • bid41612¢
  • bid1011¢
  • bid1,61510¢
  • bid3058¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Virgin Galactic launches next commercial Delta-class SpaceShip After issuance and before Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Jul 1 · 2:00 AM UTC
closes
Feb 1, 2027 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 8, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXSPCELAUNCH-COMM-27FEB01
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 12 trades, 28% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
2h ago50¢500bought no
4h ago56¢500bought no
4h ago58¢5bought no
4h ago59¢5bought no
2d ago75¢1.52bought yes
2d ago75¢500bought yes
3d ago61¢22bought no
3d ago64¢1.52bought yes
26d ago57¢2.23bought no
1mo ago56¢2.18bought no
1mo ago68¢298bought no
2mo ago75¢22bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.