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51st state ·closes in 28mo

Will D.C. be the 51st U.S. state before Jan 20, 2029?

YES means District of Columbia

24h volume
1,556
116.7k lifetime
Open interest
67.7k
+3,719 over 7d
Spread
1¢
3,749 × 2,996 at the touch
24h range
1¢ – 1¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
1%+0

A YES contract costs 1¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
99%

costs 100¢

YES bid / ask
0¢ / 1¢
NO bid / ask
99¢ / 100¢
24h low 1¢24h high 1¢
Recent buying88% YES · 12% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢5¢10¢volSep 14Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask7185¢
  • ask3,1864¢
  • ask3,8533¢
  • ask3,0002¢
  • ask2,0002¢
  • ask1,0981¢
  • ask781¢
  • ask2,9961¢
spread1¢mid 1¢
  • bid3,7490¢
  • bid11.3k0¢
  • bid376.0k0¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the 51st state is District of Columbia before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Jan 9, 2025 · 6:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 20, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 20, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXSTATE51-29-DC
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 13¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 88% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
11h ago1¢3.51bought yes
11h ago1¢1,302bought yes
11h ago1¢250bought yes
2d ago1¢1,681bought yes
2d ago1¢98bought yes
4d ago1¢384bought yes
6d ago1¢1,004bought yes
7d ago0¢304bought no
11d ago1¢78bought yes
12d ago0¢1bought no
15d ago0¢143bought no
15d ago0¢367bought no
16d ago1¢49bought yes
16d ago1¢49bought yes
18d ago1¢279bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.