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KXTAIWANLVL4·closes in 28mo

Will the U.S. State Department issue a Level 4 warning for Taiwan before Jan 1, 2029?

YES means Before Jan 1, 2029

24h volume
0
23.0k lifetime
Open interest
6,846
+102 over 7d
Spread
1¢
6.59 × 398 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
28%

A YES contract costs 28¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
72%

costs 73¢

YES bid / ask
27¢ / 28¢
NO bid / ask
72¢ / 73¢
Recent buying36% YES · 64% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
20¢25¢30¢35¢40¢volSep 15, 8:00 PMSep 17, 8:00 PM

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask73374¢
  • ask1,13664¢
  • ask1,05363¢
  • ask6056¢
  • ask10041¢
  • ask10035¢
  • ask50031¢
  • ask39828¢
spread1¢mid 28¢
  • bid6.5927¢
  • bid50023¢
  • bid5502¢
  • bid1,7672¢
  • bid501¢
  • bid1,0000¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the U.S. State Department issues, updates, or reaffirms a Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

Advisories dated for future events must be effective before Jan 1, 2029 to qualify. The category level must be the one that applies to the whole country, rather than a particular region, unless the country rulebook variable in this case refers to a region. A Travel Advisory is considered "issued" when it appears on the official State Department travel advisories website with an official publication date. A Level 4 travel advisory means "Do not travel" and is the highest advisory level due to life-threatening risks.

Settlement sources
opened
Jan 7 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2029 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2030 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXTAIWANLVL4-29JAN01
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 36% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
3d ago28¢102bought yes
7d ago27¢8bought no
7d ago28¢100bought yes
10d ago27¢16bought no
10d ago27¢13bought no
10d ago27¢4.03bought no
18d ago27¢2bought no
21d ago32¢1bought yes
21d ago32¢1bought yes
21d ago32¢1bought yes
21d ago32¢2bought yes
21d ago32¢2bought yes
24d ago32¢31bought yes
25d ago33¢4.25bought yes
25d ago32¢100bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.