Will John Thune run for reelection?·closes in 18mo

Will John Thune announce a run for U.S. Senate in 2028?

YES means Yes

24h volume: 0; 238 lifetime
Open interest: 230; +183 over 7d
Spread: 8¢; 200 × 10 at the touch
24h range: 74¢ – 75¢

Chance of YES

74%

A YES contract costs 84¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

26%

costs 24¢

YES bid / ask

76¢ / 84¢

NO bid / ask

16¢ / 24¢

24h low 74¢24h high 75¢

What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.

2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.

3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h 7d 30d 90d

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes

ask5099¢
ask51798¢
ask20095¢
ask20085¢
ask1084¢

spread8¢mid 80¢

bid20076¢
bid20032¢
bid30331¢
bid525¢
bid4024¢
bid1836¢
bid501¢

Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If John Thune has announced that they will run for U.S. Senate in 2028 before Mar 28, 2028, including running for the nomination of any political party to contest that office, then the market resolves to Yes.

The person must publicly announce their campaign for it to be reported by a Source Agency. Merely filing campaign paperwork with the Federal Election Commission or similar entity is insufficient without a public announcement. The announcement must be for the specific office and election year listed. Exploratory committees or statements of interest without formal campaign announcements do not qualify. Running for a party's nomination to contest the office counts as running for that office. The announcement must come from the person themselves or their official campaign, not from speculation or third-party sources.

Settlement sources

opened: Aug 11 · 4:36 PM UTC
closes: Mar 28, 2028 · 2:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by: Mar 28, 2028 · 2:00 PM UTC
ticker: KXTHUNERUN-28-28MAR28

Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in its event.

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.