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US annual trade deficit·closes in 5mo

Will US trade deficit for 2026 be between 105‎ billion and 119.5‎ billion?

YES means 105‎ billion to 119.5‎ billion

24h volume
0
768 lifetime
Open interest
616
Spread
25¢
0 × 23 at the touch
24h range
–
Chance of YES
2%

A YES contract costs 25¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
98%

costs 100¢

YES bid / ask
0¢ / 25¢
NO bid / ask
75¢ / 100¢
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask20050¢
  • ask2545¢
  • ask1638¢
  • ask25037¢
  • ask20036¢
  • ask435¢
  • ask2330¢
  • ask2325¢
spread–mid –
    Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

    How this market resolves

    Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

    If US trade deficit for 2026 is between 105‎ billion and 119.5‎ billion, then the market resolves to Yes.

    The Expiration Value is the annual seasonally adjusted U.S. trade balance (goods and services) for 2026, as reported in the FT-900 release covering December 2026.

    Settlement sources
    opened
    Feb 24 · 3:00 PM UTC
    closes
    Feb 28, 2027 · 1:29 PM UTC · may close early
    settles by
    May 29, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC
    floor
    105
    cap
    119.5
    ticker
    KXTRADEDEFICIT-27FEB28-B112.25
    Trade it on kalshi.com

    This event

    Outcomes in this event settle independently.

    This is the only market in its event.

    Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.