Will US trade deficit for 2026 be between 140 billion and 170 billion?
YES means 140 billion to 170 billion
- 24h volume
- 0
- 718 lifetime
- Open interest
- 448
- Spread
- 10¢
- 0 × 5 at the touch
- 24h range
- –
- 1 recent trades
A YES contract costs 10¢ and pays $1 if it happens.
costs 100¢
An independent read of this market
Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.
Price history
YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.
Order book
Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.
Order book unavailable.
How this market resolves
Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.
If US trade deficit for 2026 is between 140 billion and 170 billion, then the market resolves to Yes.
The Expiration Value is the annual seasonally adjusted U.S. trade balance (goods and services) for 2026, as reported in the FT-900 release covering December 2026.
- opened
- Feb 24 · 3:00 PM UTC
- closes
- Feb 28, 2027 · 1:29 PM UTC · may close early
- settles by
- May 29, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC
- floor
- 140
- cap
- 170
- ticker
- KXTRADEDEFICIT-27FEB28-B155.0
This event
Outcomes in this event settle independently.
This is the only market in its event.
Recent trades
Over the last 1 trades, 100% of contracts were bought on the YES side.
| When | YES | Contracts | Side |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25d ago | 5¢ | 7.85 | bought yes |
Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.