Will the U.S. goods and services deficit for 2032 be above $600 billion?
YES means Above $600 billion
- 24h volume
- 0
- 0 lifetime
- Open interest
- 0
- +0 over 7d
- Spread
- 49¢
- 200 × 100 at the touch
- 24h range
- –
A YES contract costs 99¢ and pays $1 if it happens.
costs 50¢
An independent read of this market
Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.
Price history
YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.
Order book
Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.
- ask10099¢
- bid20050¢
- bid8987¢
- bid476¢
- bid2005¢
- bid1001¢
How this market resolves
Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.
If the U.S. goods and services deficit for calendar year 2032 is strictly above $600 billion dollars, then the market resolves to Yes.
The Underlying is the nominal goods and services balance on a balance-of-payments basis. It will not use the goods-only deficit, the advance goods report, the December monthly deficit, or inflation-adjusted trade data. Because the agencies generally report the balance as a negative number, the market will use the absolute size of the deficit. For example, an annual trade balance of −$800.1 billion constitutes a trade deficit of $800.1 billion. Resolution will use the first annual estimate published in the release covering December of 2032. Subsequent annual revisions will not be considered.
- opened
- Aug 26 · 7:00 PM UTC
- closes
- Feb 7, 2033 · 1:29 PM UTC · may close early
- settles by
- Feb 14, 2033 · 3:00 PM UTC
- floor
- 600
- ticker
- KXTRADEDEFICIT-33FEB07-T600
Other outcomes in this event
Outcomes in this event settle independently.
Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.