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Will the Treasury announce a completed Bitcoin purchase?·closes in 3mo

Will the U.S. Department of the Treasury announce its completed purchase of Bitcoin for a government-held reserve or stockpile before Jan 1, 2027?

YES means Before Jan 1, 2027

24h volume
0
516 lifetime
Open interest
514
Spread
2¢
62 × 2 at the touch
24h range
–
16 recent trades
Chance of YES
11%

A YES contract costs 9¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
89%

costs 93¢

YES bid / ask
7¢ / 9¢
NO bid / ask
91¢ / 93¢
Recent buying100% YES · 0% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask49384¢
  • ask19983¢
  • ask12455¢
  • ask450¢
  • ask19749¢
  • ask26648¢
  • ask20010¢
  • ask29¢
spread2¢mid 8¢
  • bid627¢
  • bid2963¢
  • bid501¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the U.S. Department of the Treasury announces its completed purchase of Bitcoin for a government-held reserve or stockpile before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

A purchase means Bitcoin acquired for value and held by the U.S. Department of the Treasury, including Bitcoin bought with the proceeds of selling other digital assets already held. The announcement must state that the purchase has been made. The following do NOT count: An intended, planned or authorized purchase, including one authorized by legislation or by executive order Bitcoin confiscated pursuant to criminal or civil enforcement proceedings, or otherwise received rather than bought Exchange-traded products, futures or other derivative exposure

Settlement sources
opened
Aug 19 · 10:30 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2027 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 8, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXTREASBUYBTC-26AUG-27JAN01
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 16 trades, 100% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
1d ago11¢2bought no
1d ago98¢1.01bought yes
2d ago10¢4.37bought yes
2d ago47¢46bought yes
2d ago10¢200bought yes
2d ago9¢0.68bought yes
17d ago10¢0.08bought yes
17d ago10¢22bought yes
17d ago9¢2.84bought yes
20d ago10¢17bought yes
24d ago7¢57bought yes
24d ago6¢61bought yes
26d ago6¢25bought yes
27d ago6¢14bought yes
27d ago6¢1bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.