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Treasury cryptocurrency purchases·closes in 28mo

Will the U.S. Department of the Treasury announce its completed purchase of Cardano for a government-held reserve or stockpile before Jan 21, 2029?

YES means Cardano

24h volume
0
0 lifetime
Open interest
0
Spread
10¢
0 × 200 at the touch
24h range
–
Chance of YES
0%

A YES contract costs 10¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
100%

costs 100¢

YES bid / ask
0¢ / 10¢
NO bid / ask
90¢ / 100¢
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask883¢
  • ask1582¢
  • ask7260¢
  • ask1050¢
  • ask26648¢
  • ask18246¢
  • ask345¢
  • ask20010¢
spread–mid –
    Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

    How this market resolves

    Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

    If the U.S. Department of the Treasury announces its completed purchase of Cardano for a government-held reserve or stockpile before Jan 21, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

    A purchase means the named cryptocurrency acquired for value and held by the U.S. Department of the Treasury, including units bought with the proceeds of selling other digital assets already held. The announcement must state that the purchase has been made. Each strike settles on its own token, and more than one strike can resolve YES. The following do NOT count: An intended, planned or authorized purchase, including one authorized by legislation or by executive order Units confiscated pursuant to criminal or civil enforcement proceedings, or otherwise received rather than bought Exchange-traded products, futures or other derivative exposure

    Settlement sources
    opened
    Aug 20 · 2:00 PM UTC
    closes
    Jan 21, 2029 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
    settles by
    Jan 28, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
    ticker
    KXTREASBUYCRYPTO-26AUG-CARDANO
    Trade it on kalshi.com

    Other outcomes in this event

    Outcomes in this event settle independently.

    Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.