Will Robin Smith receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?
YES means Robin Smith
- 24h volume
- 0
- 3,152 lifetime
- Open interest
- 2,722
- Spread
- 32¢
- 6 × 5 at the touch
- 24h range
- –
- 6 recent trades
A YES contract costs 68¢ and pays $1 if it happens.
costs 64¢
An independent read of this market
Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.
Price history
YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.
Order book
Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.
Order book unavailable.
How this market resolves
Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.
If Robin Smith has been given a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve during Trump's second term and before Jan 21, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
The market resolves to Yes if the specified person receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve during the specified Presidential term and before the deadline date. The pardon can be for any federal crime. Commutations that reduce sentences and reprieves that delay punishment also satisfy the criterion. State-level pardons do not count. The Presidential term continues even if the President changes due to succession or resignation.
- opened
- Nov 18, 2025 · 3:00 PM UTC
- closes
- Jan 21, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
- settles by
- Jan 21, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
- ticker
- KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21-RSMI
This event
Outcomes in this event settle independently.
This is the only market in its event.
Recent trades
Over the last 6 trades, 51% of contracts were bought on the YES side.
| When | YES | Contracts | Side |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2mo ago | 34¢ | 5 | bought no |
| 2mo ago | 33¢ | 44 | bought no |
| 2mo ago | 38¢ | 40 | bought yes |
| 2mo ago | 37¢ | 4 | bought yes |
| 2mo ago | 37¢ | 5 | bought yes |
| 2mo ago | 37¢ | 1 | bought yes |
Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.