Who will be cast in show·closes in 16mo

Will Avantika be cast in Amazon Prime Video’s television adaptation of Holly Black’s The Folk of the Air series?

YES means Avantika

24h volume
0
106 lifetime
Open interest
53
+0 over 7d
Spread
92¢
5 × 140 at the touch
24h range
2 recent trades
Chance of YES
7%

A YES contract costs 98¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
93%

costs 94¢

YES bid / ask
/ 98¢
NO bid / ask
/ 94¢
Recent buying50% YES · 50% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

0¢25¢50¢75¢100¢volSep 16Sep 20

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask14098¢
spread92¢mid 52¢
  • bid5
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Avantika is cast in Amazon Prime Video’s television adaptation of Holly Black’s The Folk of the Air series before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

opened
Aug 19 · 8:52 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXTVCAST-FOL28-AVA
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 2 trades, 50% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
29d ago53bought no
30d ago53bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.