Will the average daily minimum temperature in Texas (DFW & IAH) fall below 20°F for at least 2 days within a 4-day span before Jan 1, 2027?
YES means Before 2027
- 24h volume
- 0
- 13 lifetime
- Open interest
- 12
- +0 over 7d
- Spread
- 7¢
- 5 × 100 at the touch
- 24h range
- –
- 3 recent trades
A YES contract costs 13¢ and pays $1 if it happens.
costs 94¢
An independent read of this market
Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.
Price history
YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.
Order book
Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.
- ask5099¢
- ask1,50098¢
- ask30014¢
- ask10013¢
- bid56¢
- bid2005¢
- bid501¢
How this market resolves
Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.
If any span of 4 consecutive calendar days after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027 contains at least 2 days where the Station Average at Dallas Fort Worth International Airport (DFW) and George Bush Intercontinental Airport, Houston (IAH) is below 20°F, then the market resolves to Yes.
A "Qualifying Day" is a calendar day after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027 for which the applicable Station Test is met. The Station Test is whether the Station Average for the calendar day is below 20. A calendar day is after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027 if the calendar date of that day, as used in the Source Agency's climatological records for the Reference Stations, falls after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027. The Qualifying Days within that span need not be consecutive, and Qualifying Days occurring outside that span do not affect the determination. The Station Average is calculated for any calendar day as the arithmetic mean of the Daily Minimum Temperatures for all Reference Stations for that calendar day, computed in degrees Fahrenheit and truncated to one decimal place. The Daily Minimum Temperature is the minimum temperature, in degrees Fahrenheit (unless otherwise specified), for a Reference Station for a calendar day, as documented by the Source Agency in its daily or monthly climatological records for that station, using the calendar-day boundaries applied by the Source Agency in those records. If the Source Agency corrects a documented value prior to Expiration, the corrected value shall be used.
- opened
- Jul 22 · 8:45 PM UTC
- closes
- Jan 1, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
- settles by
- Jan 7, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
- ticker
- KXTXURI-28DEC31-27JAN01
Other outcomes in this event
Outcomes in this event settle independently.
Recent trades
Over the last 3 trades, 92% of contracts were bought on the YES side.
| When | YES | Contracts | Side |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20d ago | 15¢ | 11 | bought yes |
| 1mo ago | 5¢ | 1 | bought no |
| 1mo ago | 15¢ | 1 | bought yes |
Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.