U.S. unemployment rate at year-end·closes in 113mo

Will the seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) for December 2035 be above 9.5%?

YES means Above 9.5%

24h volume
0
0 lifetime
Open interest
0
+0 over 7d
Spread
10¢
200 × 200 at the touch
24h range
Chance of YES
0%

A YES contract costs 19¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
100%

costs 91¢

YES bid / ask
/ 19¢
NO bid / ask
81¢ / 91¢
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask20019¢
spread10¢mid 14¢
  • bid200
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) for December 2035 is above 9.5%, then the market resolves to Yes.

“Year-end” refers exclusively to the December reference month, regardless of when the corresponding data are released. It does not refer to the annual average, the fourth-quarter average, the highest unemployment rate reported during the year, or the latest unemployment rate available as of December 31. The Expiration Value is the first non-preliminary seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics for December 2035. Values will be compared as published without rounding. Later revisions will not affect the outcome.

Settlement sources
opened
Sep 3 · 1:00 AM UTC
closes
Jan 4, 2036 · 1:29 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 11, 2036 · 1:30 PM UTC
floor
9.5
ticker
KXU3EOY-36JAN04-T9.5
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.